Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -310 ALST +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +1 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -6.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (-22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -4.5 (-3.5) | 150.9 (-13.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -5.3 (-4.3) | 149.1 (-12.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -4.7 (-3.7) | 152.2 (-15.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -4.8 (-3.8) | 152.7 (-15.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SOU 71 – 64 ALST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALST 66 – 65 SOU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALST 82 – 81 SOU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | SOU 65 – 57 ALST |
| Feb 12, 2024 | SOU 73 – 62 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 5-4 |
| Away | 7-12 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#292) | -11.7 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#277) | -1.78 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#265) | -2.23 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#294) | 0.413 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.2% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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