Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -260 ALST +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +1 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -7.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -5.0 (-6.0) | 141.0 (-10.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -5.9 (-6.9) | 140.3 (-9.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -5.1 (-6.1) | 136.6 (-5.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -5.3 (-6.3) | 136.9 (-5.9) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SOU 71 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SOU 69 – 68 ALST |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALST 82 – 81 SOU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | SOU 65 – 57 ALST |
| Feb 12, 2024 | SOU 73 – 62 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-1 | 8-3 |
| Away | 9-10 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#222) | -7.5 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#185) | -1.37 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#171) | -2.08 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#165) | 0.461 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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