Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | ALST +100 SOU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +8 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -0.2 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -0.4 (-8.4) | 133.9 (-11.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -0.8 (-7.2) | 132.0 (-10.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -0.4 (-7.6) | 130.1 (-8.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -0.5 (-7.5) | 130.2 (-8.2) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SOU 71 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SOU 69 – 68 ALST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALST 66 – 65 SOU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALST 82 – 81 SOU |
| Feb 12, 2024 | SOU 73 – 62 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#310) | -5.3 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#305) | -0.24 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#312) | -0.66 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#263) | 0.503 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 33.5% |
Game Analysis
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