Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -115 SOU -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -1.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -0.1 (-7.1) | 153.9 (-18.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -0.6 (-7.6) | 150.1 (-15.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -1.0 (-8.0) | 149.6 (-14.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -0.8 (-7.8) | 151.4 (-16.4) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | SOU 69 – 68 ALST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALST 66 – 65 SOU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALST 82 – 81 SOU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | SOU 65 – 57 ALST |
| Feb 12, 2024 | SOU 73 – 62 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#316) | -8.7 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#317) | -1.27 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#317) | -1.45 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#319) | 0.445 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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