Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -213 ALST +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +11 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -6.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -5.2 (+5.8) | 136.8 (-1.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -6.2 (+4.8) | 134.4 (+0.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -6.0 (+5.0) | 131.5 (+3.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -5.3 (+5.7) | 132.1 (+2.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SOU 71 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SOU 69 – 68 ALST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALST 66 – 65 SOU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALST 82 – 81 SOU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | SOU 65 – 57 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 7-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#242) | -7.0 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#152) | -0.85 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#176) | -1.21 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#158) | 0.464 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 36.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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