Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ALST +110 SOU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +1 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -2.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -3.3 (+4.3) | 144.6 (+18.4) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -3.1 (+4.1) | 142.9 (+20.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -3.8 (+4.8) | 142.3 (+20.7) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -3.2 (+4.2) | 141.9 (+21.1) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SOU 71 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SOU 69 – 68 ALST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALST 66 – 65 SOU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | SOU 65 – 57 ALST |
| Feb 12, 2024 | SOU 73 – 62 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-3 | 11-1 |
| Away | 6-10 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#300) | -3.4 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#312) | 0.12 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#319) | -0.02 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#320) | 0.503 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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