Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -225 MARQ +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +15 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -6.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -6.5 (+8.5) | 151.9 (+7.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -7.1 (+7.9) | 150.0 (+9.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -6.0 (+9.0) | 152.9 (+6.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -5.5 (+9.5) | 153.3 (+5.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MARQ 68 – 62 CONN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 6, 2025 | CONN 72 – 66 MARQ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | CONN 77 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 16, 2024 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#5) | 14.9 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#19) | 2.63 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#13) | 3.61 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#31) | 0.598 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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