Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -188 WIN +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +7 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -7.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -6.3 (+0.7) | 144.2 (+20.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -4.6 (+2.4) | 143.5 (+21.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -6.4 (+0.6) | 145.6 (+19.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -5.9 (+1.1) | 145.8 (+19.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WIN 84 – 71 UNCA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | WIN 69 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 86 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | WIN 103 – 90 UNCA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 84 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 10-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#182) | -4.7 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#133) | -0.90 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#140) | -1.15 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#115) | 0.460 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.