Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -167 SJSU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -0.2 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -0.7 (+8.7) | 129.8 (+2.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -0.4 (+8.4) | 129.6 (+2.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -0.6 (+8.6) | 132.4 (-0.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -0.7 (+8.7) | 132.4 (-0.4) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FRES 82 – 68 SJSU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | FRES 70 – 55 SJSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJSU 92 – 68 FRES |
| Feb 5, 2025 | SJSU 94 – 91 FRES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FRES 69 – 57 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#169) | 3.6 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#196) | 1.05 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#182) | 1.33 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#203) | 0.553 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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