Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT -175 ELON +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +5 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -5.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -4.6 (+0.4) | 145.5 (-18.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -3.4 (+1.6) | 143.2 (-16.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -4.8 (+0.2) | 144.3 (-17.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -4.6 (+0.4) | 144.5 (-17.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | NCAT 102 – 82 ELON |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ELON 69 – 64 NCAT |
| Feb 14, 2025 | NCAT 60 – 59 ELON |
| Jan 3, 2025 | ELON 75 – 67 NCAT |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ELON 69 – 65 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#296) | -9.2 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#251) | -2.34 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#265) | -2.70 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#239) | 0.397 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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