Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -500 NJIT +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -10.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -9.0 (-0.0) | 146.4 (-11.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -9.5 (-0.5) | 143.7 (-8.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -7.9 (+1.1) | 144.9 (-9.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -7.3 (+1.7) | 145.3 (-10.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 52 NJIT |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UMBC 87 – 74 NJIT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UMBC 95 – 91 NJIT |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UMBC 87 – 64 NJIT |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UMBC 79 – 60 NJIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 4-12 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-8 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#224) | -9.1 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#203) | -1.90 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#210) | -2.10 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#221) | 0.411 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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