Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | BU -120 AMER +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +6 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | BU -0.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -1.5 (+4.5) | 129.1 (-15.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -1.6 (+4.4) | 125.2 (-11.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -0.1 (+5.9) | 131.0 (-17.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -0.3 (+6.3) | 131.4 (-17.4) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | BU 75 – 73 AMER |
| Feb 28, 2026 | BU 68 – 65 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2026 | AMER 64 – 62 BU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AMER 48 – 44 BU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BU 60 – 54 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-11 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#275) | -2.5 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#283) | -0.23 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#289) | -0.54 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#273) | 0.479 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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