Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MER +188 SAM -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +1 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -2.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -1.7 (+0.7) | 141.7 (-2.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -2.1 (+1.1) | 140.4 (-1.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -1.5 (+0.5) | 142.2 (-3.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -2.0 (+1.0) | 142.5 (-3.5) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MER 89 – 86 SAM |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SAM 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SAM 100 – 79 MER |
| Jan 16, 2025 | SAM 75 – 74 MER |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SAM 70 – 57 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#235) | 1.9 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#257) | 0.05 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#247) | 0.16 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#255) | 0.509 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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