Betting Lines
| Spread | TEM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SMU +110 TEM -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +1 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TEM -1.7 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEM -1.3 (+2.3) | 143.6 (-0.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEM -1.8 (+2.8) | 142.4 (+0.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TEM -1.9 (+2.9) | 143.3 (-0.3) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEM -2.1 (+3.1) | 141.0 (+2.0) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2024 | TEM 75 – 60 SMU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | SMU 77 – 64 TEM |
| Feb 17, 2022 | TEM 64 – 57 SMU |
| Jan 29, 2022 | SMU 69 – 61 TEM |
| Jan 11, 2021 | SMU 79 – 68 TEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Away | 1-11 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#209) | 3.4 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#238) | 0.69 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#209) | 0.74 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#202) | 0.542 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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