Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | SMU -1000 TEM +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +11 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -12.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -9.5 (+1.5) | 140.7 (+6.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -10.9 (+0.1) | 141.4 (+5.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -11.7 (-0.7) | 141.4 (+5.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -10.7 (+0.3) | 142.9 (+4.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2024 | TEM 75 – 60 SMU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | SMU 77 – 64 TEM |
| Feb 9, 2023 | SMU 72 – 71 TEM |
| Feb 17, 2022 | TEM 64 – 57 SMU |
| Jan 29, 2022 | SMU 69 – 61 TEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-6 | 5-11 |
| Conference | 7-4 | 4-10 |
| Home | 6-2 | 3-5 |
| Away | 5-2 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#51) | -0.0 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#71) | -0.13 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#69) | 0.07 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#100) | 0.538 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 41.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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