Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEM +7 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -3.6 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -2.2 (+9.2) | 139.5 (-18.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -2.0 (+9.0) | 138.4 (-17.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -1.9 (+8.9) | 138.4 (-17.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -2.0 (+9.0) | 138.9 (-17.9) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2024 | TEM 75 – 60 SMU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | SMU 77 – 64 TEM |
| Feb 9, 2023 | SMU 72 – 71 TEM |
| Jan 29, 2022 | SMU 69 – 61 TEM |
| Jan 11, 2021 | SMU 79 – 68 TEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEM | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 13-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 17-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#125) | 9.4 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#112) | 1.89 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#118) | 2.18 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#125) | 0.594 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEM | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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