We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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79–40 on winners spread MAE 9.5 119 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Chicago State @ Ohio +12.0 142.5 86% 59–76 ✓
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland -5.2 142.6 32% 101–67 ✓
American University @ Lafayette -0.0 120.1 50% 60–47 ✓
Marist @ Fairfield +6.9 122.1 74% 54–73 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Vanderbilt +8.1 146.3 77% 55–93 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas A&M +11.6 142.6 85% 66–86 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ South Carolina +4.5 146.3 66% 64–74 ✓
North Alabama @ Jacksonville State +5.6 147.2 69% 66–62 ✗
Western Michigan @ Wisconsin +21.9 127.3 98% 66–76 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Houston Christian +3.1 162.9 61% 96–101 ✓
Coppin State @ Rutgers +26.8 145.4 99% 57–90 ✓
North Dakota State @ North Dakota +4.6 142.4 66% 71–49 ✗
USC @ Washington +3.6 142.1 63% 80–67 ✗
UCLA @ Washington State -6.6 135.5 27% 67–66 ✓
UConn @ Xavier -5.8 155.6 30% 73–83 ✗
Virginia @ Georgia Tech -5.2 124.2 32% 74–56 ✓
Texas Tech @ TCU +3.2 137.8 62% 61–67 ✓
Louisville @ Kentucky +27.3 136.4 99% 63–86 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest -1.1 147.7 46% 75–77 ✗
New Hampshire @ UAlbany +2.8 134.7 60% 67–51 ✗
Yale @ Columbia -18.6 129.6 5% 60–62 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Niagara +1.9 120.2 57% 55–67 ✓
St. John's @ Seton Hall +6.6 143.0 73% 66–88 ✓
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy +7.6 150.0 76% 84–81 ✗
Charleston @ Towson -1.5 142.1 45% 76–74 ✓
Stony Brook @ Northeastern +9.3 129.0 80% 65–61 ✗
Florida State @ Duke +20.0 137.8 97% 67–86 ✓
Binghamton @ Bryant +19.7 161.7 96% 78–82 ✓
Harvard @ Princeton +9.0 130.6 79% 66–69 ✓
Saint Louis @ Saint Joseph's -3.2 152.3 39% 83–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ Duquesne +10.6 137.5 83% 61–72 ✓
Samford @ The Citadel -1.8 140.8 43% 75–63 ✓
East Tennessee State @ VMI +1.0 144.3 53% 64–50 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Central Connecticut +3.9 127.9 64% 52–74 ✓
Merrimack @ Wagner +11.3 114.7 85% 58–48 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Long Island University -3.7 151.0 37% 82–64 ✓
Green Bay @ Oakland +13.1 144.9 88% 65–81 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Hofstra +15.2 152.5 92% 81–79 ✗
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast +9.2 125.0 80% 65–72 ✓
UCF @ Houston +18.5 113.6 95% 65–71 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Kansas +9.8 138.7 81% 67–69 ✓
Arizona @ Arizona State -2.5 159.2 41% 69–60 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma -1.5 133.1 45% 70–69 ✓
Baylor @ Iowa State +2.3 129.7 58% 62–77 ✓
Boston College @ Syracuse +10.0 131.5 82% 65–79 ✓
UIC @ Bradley +17.0 126.1 94% 45–79 ✓
UMass Lowell @ NJIT -10.1 138.5 18% 67–64 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Charlotte +11.2 133.2 85% 66–68 ✓
Marquette @ Villanova -1.8 153.7 43% 68–66 ✓
Richmond @ George Mason +4.3 126.5 65% 58–62 ✓
Massachusetts @ St. Bonaventure +1.0 130.6 54% 64–83 ✓
La Salle @ VCU +14.1 133.9 90% 67–80 ✓
Dayton @ Davidson -1.3 127.3 45% 69–55 ✓
Nevada @ Air Force -1.2 128.5 46% 75–69 ✓
Fresno State @ Utah State +16.5 138.3 93% 54–67 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Arlington -0.4 138.7 49% 66–62 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Winthrop +1.0 156.5 54% 60–62 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +13.8 131.2 90% 51–69 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +2.5 137.7 59% 80–73 ✗
Longwood @ Campbell -1.9 142.1 43% 67–42 ✓
Chattanooga @ Mercer +4.2 152.4 65% 80–51 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Wofford +3.2 130.7 61% 73–64 ✗
Louisiana @ Old Dominion +3.1 147.2 61% 66–70 ✓
James Madison @ Marshall +4.4 159.0 66% 72–66 ✗
South Alabama @ Georgia State -2.0 125.4 43% 58–68 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +2.9 128.9 61% 73–64 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Dakota -0.8 145.3 47% 63–80 ✗
Kansas City @ Omaha +3.9 135.3 64% 75–59 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis -7.5 128.1 25% 55–42 ✓
Elon @ Delaware +12.6 144.6 87% 52–57 ✓
William & Mary @ Drexel +9.7 125.9 81% 56–66 ✓
Hampton @ UNC Wilmington +20.2 140.5 97% 65–82 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Kennesaw State +13.8 149.9 89% 66–82 ✓
Austin Peay @ North Florida +5.8 139.8 70% 85–90 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +8.1 153.4 77% 76–71 ✗
Rider @ Canisius +2.3 148.2 58% 66–64 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +3.1 131.9 61% 66–60 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Southern Utah +18.3 174.8 95% 88–94 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern +6.2 147.7 71% 85–90 ✓
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +8.4 124.3 78% 84–72 ✗
App State @ Southern Miss +17.7 131.6 95% 70–76 ✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota State +1.5 146.1 55% 64–71 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Denver -8.8 163.9 21% 80–62 ✓
Cleveland State @ Robert Morris +3.3 125.0 62% 63–54 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northwestern State +4.8 144.9 67% 65–59 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State -2.8 146.1 40% 73–82 ✗
East Carolina @ Wichita State +9.3 120.6 80% 79–69 ✗
Florida International @ North Texas +19.2 123.6 96% 57–72 ✓
Utah @ Stanford -0.6 131.1 48% 71–66 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee +10.4 139.3 83% 60–65 ✓
UTSA @ UAB +25.0 165.6 99% 67–90 ✓
Rice @ UTEP +4.2 149.4 65% 72–67 ✗
George Washington @ Loyola Chicago +3.5 139.3 62% 97–87 ✗
San José State @ Colorado State +7.0 135.4 74% 78–70 ✗
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian +1.8 144.9 57% 63–69 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +8.5 147.8 78% 60–71 ✓
Furman @ Western Carolina -5.9 150.9 30% 67–79 ✗
Stonehill @ Saint Francis +1.1 155.1 54% 72–73 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Bakersfield -8.5 122.4 22% 79–75 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Weber State +7.5 138.7 75% 60–76 ✓
Idaho @ Montana +7.5 142.2 75% 56–67 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana State +8.2 137.8 77% 70–67 ✗
Queens University @ Eastern Kentucky -1.4 148.1 45% 83–88 ✗
New Mexico @ Wyoming -8.3 147.3 23% 76–75 ✓
San Diego State @ UNLV +1.7 139.7 56% 76–67 ✗
Morehead State @ UT Martin +8.1 146.6 77% 57–64 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Eastern Illinois -2.5 144.0 41% 80–91 ✗
Little Rock @ Tennessee State +4.7 157.9 67% 69–94 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Lindenwood +2.2 141.7 58% 64–82 ✓
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +15.4 160.5 92% 88–111 ✓
McNeese @ Lamar +2.1 139.8 58% 81–62 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific -3.9 153.5 36% 72–78 ✗
Troy @ Texas State -4.0 132.8 36% 55–52 ✓
Portland State @ Sacramento State +5.0 152.8 68% 63–74 ✓
Incarnate Word @ East Texas A&M +10.4 136.7 83% 74–82 ✓
Colorado @ California -10.1 129.1 18% 76–80 ✗
Sam Houston @ New Mexico State -1.5 137.2 44% 75–62 ✓
California Baptist @ Seattle U +7.4 133.5 75% 65–71 ✓
UC Riverside @ Long Beach State +3.6 152.5 63% 73–72 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.