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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
21–5 on winners
spread MAE 10.0
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
West Virginia
@
Kansas State
|
+1.0 | 143.7 | 54% | 76–82 | ✓ |
Saint Mary's
@
Santa Clara
|
-5.7 | 132.6 | 30% | 67–64 | ✓ |
San Diego
@
San Francisco
|
+10.5 | 160.6 | 83% | 80–68 | ✗ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
+7.4 | 129.3 | 75% | 52–64 | ✓ |
UC San Diego
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+13.2 | 124.7 | 88% | 61–82 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Oregon
|
+14.8 | 123.4 | 91% | 68–77 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
Idaho State
|
+4.7 | 147.8 | 66% | 83–90 | ✓ |
Portland
@
BYU
|
+8.0 | 151.6 | 77% | 58–71 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
Hawai'i
|
+12.2 | 119.2 | 87% | 48–57 | ✓ |
Vermont
@
UMBC
|
+3.6 | 145.6 | 63% | 74–61 | ✗ |
Indiana State
@
Valparaiso
|
-7.9 | 152.4 | 24% | 68–50 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Evansville
|
-1.8 | 136.1 | 43% | 78–61 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Dartmouth
|
-8.3 | 148.9 | 22% | 74–63 | ✓ |
Siena
@
Fairfield
|
-0.1 | 134.6 | 50% | 70–61 | ✓ |
Providence
@
DePaul
|
-5.5 | 156.3 | 31% | 74–59 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Temple
|
-1.3 | 145.1 | 45% | 61–70 | ✗ |
Tulsa
@
SMU
|
+8.8 | 139.9 | 79% | 67–92 | ✓ |
USC
@
Washington State
|
+5.7 | 137.1 | 70% | 71–81 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Missouri State
|
+5.6 | 127.0 | 69% | 49–52 | ✓ |
Quinnipiac
@
Manhattan
|
-6.4 | 146.1 | 28% | 84–65 | ✓ |
Saint Peter's
@
Iona
|
+23.3 | 132.9 | 98% | 55–73 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Michigan
|
-3.0 | 142.1 | 39% | 46–81 | ✗ |
Memphis
@
Tulane
|
-3.8 | 153.9 | 36% | 89–96 | ✗ |
Belmont
@
Southern Illinois
|
+5.6 | 136.4 | 69% | 45–63 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Penn State
|
+4.2 | 153.1 | 65% | 79–83 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Georgetown
|
-3.8 | 145.5 | 37% | 80–51 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.