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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–4 on winners
spread MAE 8.0
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UCLA
@
Washington
|
-11.0 | 140.0 | 16% | 74–49 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Northwestern
|
-1.3 | 131.6 | 45% | 73–57 | ✓ |
Rider
@
Niagara
|
+2.0 | 126.9 | 57% | 59–61 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
Navy
|
+17.2 | 136.0 | 94% | 74–63 | ✗ |
Boston University
@
Bucknell
|
+3.9 | 142.2 | 64% | 69–61 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Lehigh
|
-10.0 | 157.8 | 18% | 76–60 | ✓ |
Loyola Maryland
@
American University
|
+16.1 | 124.7 | 93% | 55–71 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-9.7 | 140.9 | 19% | 82–68 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Canisius
|
+3.0 | 138.2 | 61% | 64–60 | ✗ |
Jackson State
@
Alcorn State
|
+5.8 | 149.1 | 70% | 67–66 | ✗ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Alabama State
|
+9.5 | 131.5 | 81% | 61–70 | ✓ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Kennesaw State
|
+6.8 | 139.5 | 73% | 75–79 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.