Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -333 MVSU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -8.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -5.9 (+3.1) | 133.6 (-2.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -6.5 (+2.5) | 132.7 (-1.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -4.0 (+5.0) | 133.7 (-2.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -3.5 (+5.5) | 134.0 (-3.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | ALST 92 – 55 MVSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALST 89 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 18, 2025 | ALST 79 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ALST 84 – 55 MVSU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ALST 61 – 46 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Away | 2-18 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -12.7 (#350) | -16.6 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#304) | -1.66 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#302) | -2.08 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#267) | 0.440 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.5% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.2% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 26.1% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.