Betting Lines
| Spread | CAN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | CAN -154 MSM +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +4 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | CAN -2.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -0.4 (-4.4) | 138.5 (-14.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -1.5 (-5.5) | 138.3 (-14.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -0.6 (-4.6) | 137.8 (-13.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -0.1 (-3.9) | 139.5 (-15.5) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | MSM 68 – 47 CAN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MSM 78 – 68 CAN |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSM 73 – 66 CAN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | CAN 77 – 61 MSM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | CAN 61 – 56 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-7 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#261) | -3.2 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#334) | -1.01 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#311) | -1.10 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#301) | 0.449 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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