Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -300 L-MD +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -17.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -12.2 (+3.8) | 127.0 (-1.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -10.5 (+5.5) | 126.6 (-0.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -11.5 (+4.5) | 130.2 (-4.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -12.9 (+3.1) | 130.9 (-4.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | L-MD 77 – 68 AMER |
| Dec 31, 2025 | AMER 84 – 69 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AMER 72 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AMER 73 – 54 L-MD |
| Feb 8, 2024 | L-MD 44 – 43 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#146) | -11.3 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#139) | -1.86 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#143) | -2.53 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#193) | 0.383 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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