Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -195 L-MD +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +21 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -6.1 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -4.6 (+16.4) | 135.3 (-12.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -5.7 (+15.3) | 135.3 (-12.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -5.0 (+16.0) | 134.7 (-11.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -4.7 (+16.3) | 134.6 (-11.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | L-MD 77 – 68 AMER |
| Dec 31, 2025 | AMER 84 – 69 L-MD |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AMER 73 – 54 L-MD |
| Feb 8, 2024 | L-MD 44 – 43 AMER |
| Jan 16, 2024 | AMER 66 – 52 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#265) | -9.0 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#195) | -1.50 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#214) | -1.87 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#157) | 0.428 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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