Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | L-MD -135 AMER +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +19 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | L-MD -4.0 (-23.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -2.1 (-21.1) | 139.2 (-12.2) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -2.3 (-21.3) | 139.6 (-12.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -2.2 (-21.2) | 141.6 (-14.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -1.9 (-20.9) | 140.4 (-13.4) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | L-MD 77 – 68 AMER |
| Dec 31, 2025 | AMER 84 – 69 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AMER 72 – 51 L-MD |
| Feb 8, 2024 | L-MD 44 – 43 AMER |
| Jan 16, 2024 | AMER 66 – 52 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#275) | -6.9 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#257) | -0.71 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#258) | -1.00 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#276) | 0.471 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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