Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -455 L-MD +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +15 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -10.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -8.0 (+7.0) | 150.0 (+3.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -8.9 (+6.1) | 150.9 (+2.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -8.9 (+6.1) | 150.7 (+2.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -8.3 (+6.7) | 152.8 (+0.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | L-MD 77 – 68 AMER |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AMER 72 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AMER 73 – 54 L-MD |
| Feb 8, 2024 | L-MD 44 – 43 AMER |
| Jan 16, 2024 | AMER 66 – 52 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#270) | -12.8 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#242) | -3.29 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#236) | -4.47 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#219) | 0.349 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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