Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -480 L-MD +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +1 | 87 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -12.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-51.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -8.7 (-9.7) | 135.5 (-48.5) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -9.8 (-10.8) | 137.5 (-50.5) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -9.5 (-10.5) | 137.1 (-50.1) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -10.8 (-11.8) | 132.9 (-45.9) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | L-MD 77 – 68 AMER |
| Dec 31, 2025 | AMER 84 – 69 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AMER 72 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AMER 73 – 54 L-MD |
| Jan 16, 2024 | AMER 66 – 52 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-7 | 2-11 |
| Away | 8-9 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#261) | -13.8 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#284) | -3.29 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#284) | -4.03 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#290) | 0.360 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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