Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | L-MD +148 AMER -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +14 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -2.6 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -5.2 (-8.8) | 135.6 (-17.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -4.7 (-9.3) | 140.1 (-22.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -4.3 (-9.7) | 141.0 (-23.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -4.7 (-9.3) | 140.3 (-22.3) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | L-MD 77 – 68 AMER |
| Dec 31, 2025 | AMER 84 – 69 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AMER 72 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AMER 73 – 54 L-MD |
| Feb 8, 2024 | L-MD 44 – 43 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 2-11 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-13 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#331) | -4.7 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.15 (#356) | -1.22 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.00 (#357) | -1.43 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.361 (#358) | 0.427 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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