Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -1400 HC +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +11 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -18.0 (-29.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -12.4 (-23.4) | 137.3 (-0.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -14.1 (-25.1) | 137.9 (-0.9) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -11.7 (-22.7) | 138.2 (-1.2) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -13.0 (-24.0) | 136.9 (+0.1) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 68 HC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 58 HC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 HC |
| Jan 8, 2025 | HC 70 – 59 NAVY |
| Feb 25, 2024 | NAVY 76 – 66 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-9 |
| Away | 9-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#149) | -12.4 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#138) | -2.54 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#158) | -3.24 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#120) | 0.372 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.5% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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