He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
51–24 on winners spread MAE 8.8 75 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Binghamton @ Cornell +21.9 156.8 98% 70–86 ✓
UTSA @ Louisiana Tech +12.6 150.0 87% 69–91 ✓
Rice @ Western Kentucky +4.1 156.0 64% 81–78 ✗
Iowa @ Nebraska +0.1 149.3 50% 50–66 ✓
Central Michigan @ Michigan +16.6 148.5 93% 63–61 ✗
UMBC @ Maryland +17.7 146.1 95% 64–80 ✓
VMI @ Furman +14.7 154.0 91% 62–85 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Wofford +9.6 138.8 81% 73–71 ✗
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -4.2 147.2 35% 68–76 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis +3.3 144.5 62% 72–80 ✓
Merrimack @ Fairleigh Dickinson +9.4 137.8 80% 63–71 ✓
Arkansas State @ Old Dominion +12.0 124.0 86% 60–57 ✗
James Madison @ Georgia State -9.6 145.9 19% 63–47 ✓
Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina -3.4 153.0 38% 76–77 ✗
App State @ Marshall +16.2 142.1 93% 53–79 ✓
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky +2.2 138.1 58% 64–78 ✓
Milwaukee @ Oakland -4.7 156.3 34% 61–83 ✗
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy +20.1 142.7 97% 59–76 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris +0.5 129.3 52% 70–75 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Northeastern +5.6 137.5 70% 76–88 ✓
Hampton @ Charleston +24.8 156.0 99% 61–89 ✓
Hofstra @ Delaware +0.5 149.3 52% 87–73 ✗
UTEP @ UAB +18.6 150.0 95% 73–79 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +7.0 149.4 74% 68–75 ✓
South Florida @ Memphis +15.5 139.4 92% 86–93 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Murray State -0.1 130.0 50% 63–57 ✓
Evansville @ Indiana State +16.7 146.5 94% 63–91 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas +0.4 119.9 51% 50–46 ✗
Georgetown @ DePaul +6.1 158.6 71% 76–83 ✓
UT Arlington @ Tarleton State +10.6 135.5 83% 63–70 ✓
Sam Houston @ Utah Valley -2.9 132.0 39% 64–80 ✗
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon +6.5 121.6 72% 59–73 ✓
Troy @ Southern Miss +9.3 141.4 80% 60–64 ✓
UL Monroe @ Texas State +14.7 134.3 91% 57–53 ✗
South Alabama @ Georgia Southern -4.0 127.9 36% 50–64 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Dakota State +6.3 141.1 72% 64–71 ✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota -7.6 146.7 25% 84–92 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Omaha -11.8 154.5 14% 92–89 ✓
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State +9.0 142.8 79% 71–85 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside +12.5 123.5 87% 59–71 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Illinois +31.8 146.2 100% 52–85 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ SIU Edwardsville +17.4 146.0 94% 51–64 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Indiana +6.7 156.0 73% 81–86 ✓
UT Martin @ Little Rock +0.3 162.5 51% 74–88 ✓
Lindenwood @ Eastern Illinois +7.5 138.0 75% 54–55 ✓
Tulane @ Cincinnati +8.9 151.2 79% 77–88 ✓
Valparaiso @ Drake +17.9 136.8 95% 63–68 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Tech +15.9 164.2 93% 66–81 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Portland +4.5 151.4 66% 92–72 ✗
San Diego @ Saint Mary's +19.1 142.9 96% 58–85 ✓
BYU @ Pacific +0.7 157.3 52% 69–49 ✗
Kansas City @ Denver +6.8 134.5 73% 83–85 ✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee State +8.6 139.0 78% 83–75 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Fullerton -1.3 127.1 45% 66–58 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Weber State +5.7 144.4 70% 72–81 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State +2.5 142.5 59% 53–79 ✓
Idaho @ Montana State +9.9 140.2 82% 58–72 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana +7.3 139.1 75% 87–80 ✗
Utah @ California -11.1 123.9 16% 58–43 ✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara +3.6 149.5 63% 67–79 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly +4.8 121.8 67% 57–67 ✓
UC San Diego @ Long Beach State +12.6 136.9 87% 85–83 ✗
Colorado @ Stanford +2.0 139.9 57% 73–70 ✗
UC Davis @ Hawai'i +7.7 138.4 76% 66–74 ✓
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh -0.1 154.7 50% 74–76 ✗
Miami @ Notre Dame -2.8 146.3 40% 76–65 ✓
Bucknell @ Holy Cross -5.1 141.2 32% 58–60 ✗
Navy @ Boston University +3.1 142.5 61% 75–58 ✗
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +5.4 136.0 69% 57–67 ✓
Stetson @ Lipscomb +4.5 146.6 66% 86–80 ✗
NC State @ Clemson +2.0 152.5 57% 64–78 ✓
Siena @ Quinnipiac +6.6 142.8 73% 83–76 ✗
Lehigh @ Army +10.5 148.9 83% 78–80 ✓
Buffalo @ Michigan State +13.9 144.9 90% 68–89 ✓
Morgan State @ Hartford -14.9 133.4 9% 61–54 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.