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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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30–13 on winners spread MAE 7.9 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kentucky @ Missouri +0.6 162.6 52% 75–89 ✓
Florida @ Auburn +6.6 140.5 73% 58–61 ✓
Chicago State @ Ball State +13.1 143.2 88% 63–70 ✓
Wichita State @ UCF +10.0 116.1 82% 45–52 ✓
Temple @ East Carolina +4.7 139.7 67% 59–57 ✗
Coppin State @ Richmond +14.5 151.9 91% 65–83 ✓
Harvard @ Maine +0.0 130.6 50% 74–73 ✗
Duquesne @ Dayton +8.1 127.0 77% 57–69 ✓
Davidson @ Fordham +5.2 149.7 68% 57–43 ✗
Rider @ Georgia +9.4 130.4 80% 72–78 ✓
Mercer @ Samford +3.9 145.5 64% 69–78 ✓
Nicholls @ Baylor +19.8 152.7 96% 56–85 ✓
Missouri State @ Northern Iowa -0.3 124.5 49% 79–67 ✓
Illinois State @ UIC +4.3 137.3 65% 51–55 ✓
Bradley @ Belmont -1.8 137.2 44% 60–63 ✗
Houston @ Tulsa -22.0 125.8 2% 89–50 ✓
Alabama @ Mississippi State +1.3 134.4 55% 78–67 ✗
Arkansas @ LSU -7.2 141.8 26% 57–60 ✗
Xavier @ St. John's -1.3 167.1 45% 84–79 ✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico +10.6 149.1 83% 69–88 ✓
Southern Utah @ New Mexico State +8.9 165.3 79% 79–75 ✗
UNLV @ San José State -2.0 131.9 43% 72–75 ✗
Boise State @ Nevada +3.5 124.7 62% 72–74 ✓
Wyoming @ Fresno State +6.2 128.4 71% 53–58 ✓
Air Force @ San Diego State +13.3 130.8 89% 55–71 ✓
Brown @ Northwestern +17.5 114.8 94% 58–63 ✓
Wagner @ Long Island University -7.0 137.7 26% 69–61 ✓
La Salle @ Howard +4.5 136.6 66% 80–76 ✗
Delaware State @ Penn State +28.7 141.4 100% 46–60 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Western Carolina +0.8 133.7 53% 72–47 ✗
Stonehill @ Sacred Heart +4.7 152.0 67% 74–67 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Ohio State +29.9 150.2 100% 59–90 ✓
High Point @ Longwood +8.6 152.0 78% 73–87 ✓
Radford @ UNC Asheville +1.2 151.2 54% 58–62 ✓
Elon @ Drexel +15.1 134.8 92% 50–62 ✓
Florida A&M @ Purdue +33.2 132.5 100% 49–82 ✓
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate +0.5 149.9 52% 62–70 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb +12.1 133.1 86% 63–83 ✓
Campbell @ Presbyterian -2.8 129.1 40% 72–82 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Charlotte +7.2 123.1 74% 67–82 ✓
Austin Peay @ Queens University +13.2 136.6 89% 77–81 ✓
Providence @ Butler +6.3 146.1 72% 72–52 ✗
Liberty @ Bellarmine -6.7 125.5 27% 70–53 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.