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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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87–36 on winners spread MAE 8.1 123 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Princeton @ Brown	-1.4	145.6	42%	69–50	✓
Pennsylvania @ Yale	+3.5	142.3	66%	72–81	✓
Cornell @ Dartmouth	-0.0	144.5	53%	59–71	✗
Columbia @ Harvard	+12.2	142.0	87%	54–62	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy	+0.5	135.7	50%	52–60	✓
Richmond @ VCU	+4.1	135.0	69%	57–77	✓
Marist @ Siena	-0.6	137.1	52%	62–53	✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairfield	-0.8	130.4	43%	70–59	✓
Rider @ Monmouth	+9.0	137.0	82%	58–60	✓
Ohio @ Kent State	+0.6	137.5	53%	52–75	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay	-4.1	132.5	27%	74–55	✓
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee	-6.7	144.7	23%	78–61	✓
Wright State @ Oakland	+4.4	147.2	70%	78–74	✗
Maryland @ Nebraska	-3.5	149.5	28%	90–74	✓
Missouri @ Mississippi State	+10.5	132.7	82%	49–68	✓
TCU @ Baylor	+11.9	134.1	87%	62–72	✓
Illinois @ Michigan State	+1.2	138.6	48%	79–74	✗
Xavier @ UConn	+6.7	142.7	79%	61–72	✓
Tulsa @ South Florida	-1.2	129.2	38%	65–57	✓
Holy Cross @ Navy	+14.9	124.9	84%	55–50	✗
Boston College @ Syracuse	+10.7	146.5	84%	56–76	✓
UMBC @ Vermont	+13.0	144.5	86%	59–86	✓
La Salle @ Massachusetts	+6.4	153.0	75%	74–80	✓
Wofford @ Furman	+6.0	139.1	72%	69–70	✓
Texas Tech @ Texas	+2.4	126.1	63%	61–55	✗
Alabama @ Kentucky	+8.2	163.7	80%	81–90	✓
UTEP @ Southern Miss	-9.1	138.0	17%	84–70	✓
Central Connecticut @ Wagner	+15.5	134.9	89%	68–78	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Bryant	+13.0	155.9	87%	93–105	✓
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest	+4.0	144.8	69%	74–79	✓
Southern Illinois @ Indiana State	-0.5	131.7	48%	76–72	✓
Dayton @ Saint Joseph's	-6.1	134.1	29%	74–62	✓
East Tennessee State @ The Citadel	-1.1	152.6	38%	77–67	✓
Niagara @ Canisius	-0.0	138.6	54%	65–54	✓
Ole Miss @ Georgia	-3.6	144.6	31%	85–68	✓
Boston University @ Colgate	+8.2	142.9	80%	53–72	✓
Auburn @ Florida	-1.8	141.7	56%	62–63	✗
Morgan State @ Howard	+6.2	148.0	73%	66–68	✓
Army @ American University	-3.7	135.7	31%	67–83	✗
High Point @ Radford	+1.2	130.5	54%	64–66	✓
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State	+4.5	134.7	73%	79–82	✓
Oklahoma @ Iowa State	+0.5	125.1	56%	54–75	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State	+14.2	127.8	89%	61–74	✓
Valparaiso @ Evansville	-3.1	133.0	39%	72–56	✓
Illinois State @ Bradley	+10.1	144.4	84%	64–72	✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota	-11.2	157.2	22%	87–73	✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota State	+4.7	140.8	72%	85–71	✗
Mercer @ Western Carolina	-3.8	145.4	38%	65–69	✗
Northeastern @ Hofstra	+10.1	141.1	86%	73–76	✓
Iowa @ Ohio State	+4.0	151.9	65%	75–62	✗
Tarleton State @ Chicago State	-6.7	132.3	22%	79–60	✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack	+4.1	132.2	67%	79–80	✓
Clemson @ Louisville	+0.3	139.7	52%	61–70	✓
Arkansas State @ UT Arlington	+1.2	136.3	54%	58–49	✗
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern	-1.8	132.8	31%	58–49	✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota State	+16.2	147.5	90%	60–79	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford	+0.1	135.5	51%	49–55	✓
Akron @ Eastern Michigan	-5.6	138.2	26%	67–48	✓
Saint Louis @ Davidson	+1.8	142.9	62%	58–79	✓
LSU @ South Carolina	-5.3	140.2	41%	75–77	✗
Tennessee @ Arkansas	+0.6	141.5	67%	48–58	✓
Air Force @ Wyoming	+14.6	128.3	89%	67–75	✓
Lafayette @ Bucknell	-1.1	144.9	47%	89–92	✗
Alabama A&M @ Bethune-Cookman	+3.1	129.2	52%	62–60	✗
Hawai'i @ UC Irvine	+5.0	126.8	69%	52–77	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State	+11.3	148.5	83%	92–84	✗
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee State	+9.2	128.5	86%	49–63	✓
Jackson State @ Alcorn State	+1.6	126.8	60%	60–61	✓
North Texas @ UAB	+5.0	129.1	62%	58–57	✗
Middle Tennessee @ Florida Atlantic	+4.1	140.2	71%	87–79	✗
Montana State @ Southern Utah	+1.0	148.3	55%	76–71	✗
Houston Christian @ Nicholls	+11.9	145.2	87%	70–84	✓
California Baptist @ Seattle U	+8.1	144.8	80%	64–67	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Lamar	-12.9	139.0	13%	70–56	✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Saint Francis	+0.2	137.0	42%	80–72	✗
Long Island University @ Mount St. Mary's	+0.9	140.7	51%	66–61	✗
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian	-3.3	129.0	42%	76–68	✓
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech	+5.3	136.8	70%	65–57	✗
New Hampshire @ UAlbany	+0.5	127.8	53%	65–70	✓
Troy @ Coastal Carolina	+3.3	132.0	63%	63–73	✓
VMI @ Chattanooga	+9.3	145.5	83%	80–75	✗
Drexel @ Elon	-4.5	137.4	34%	71–60	✓
Delaware @ William & Mary	-8.6	141.4	19%	73–69	✓
Towson @ Charleston	-3.0	141.0	39%	80–77	✓
Western Michigan @ Buffalo	+17.2	148.7	90%	73–87	✓
Northwestern @ Minnesota	-1.2	136.2	41%	60–77	✗
Delaware State @ North Carolina Central	+13.9	138.0	88%	79–84	✓
Alabama State @ Florida A&M	+3.2	136.3	68%	83–86	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ South Carolina State	-0.2	137.3	42%	63–70	✗
Murray State @ UT Martin	-13.0	137.4	15%	62–60	✓
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville	-0.4	142.3	45%	84–79	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Campbell	+5.7	127.8	73%	63–64	✓
Lipscomb @ North Alabama	-0.0	142.8	49%	75–72	✓
South Alabama @ App State	+0.2	128.2	50%	51–69	✓
Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois	-1.4	142.9	36%	78–75	✓
Norfolk State @ Coppin State	-4.3	141.9	32%	89–59	✓
Georgetown @ Villanova	+16.7	145.7	90%	66–74	✓
Texas Southern @ Mississippi Valley State	-12.4	146.1	13%	79–59	✓
SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word	-4.7	149.9	39%	84–92	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Belmont	+19.2	147.0	90%	62–73	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Austin Peay	+1.6	137.4	64%	73–69	✗
McNeese @ LSU New Orleans	+6.2	154.2	81%	75–88	✓
Virginia @ Miami	+2.9	130.0	52%	74–71	✗
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell	+5.5	136.3	70%	78–64	✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida	-0.7	153.1	53%	64–70	✗
Little Rock @ Texas State	+11.0	135.3	86%	50–68	✓
Western Illinois @ South Dakota	+3.7	152.2	78%	65–78	✓
Ball State @ Bowling Green	+3.2	159.4	65%	91–82	✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern	-3.5	143.6	34%	78–73	✓
Hartford @ Stony Brook	+4.2	148.3	71%	82–88	✓
Florida State @ Duke	+12.5	148.0	87%	70–88	✓
Utah @ California	+0.6	135.6	56%	60–58	✗
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+7.5	155.2	80%	76–83	✓
Pennsylvania @ Brown	+1.5	138.9	56%	89–88	✗
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville	+5.0	126.1	74%	56–59	✓
Drake @ Loyola Chicago	+9.4	137.5	82%	83–76	✗
Rhode Island @ George Washington	-3.4	133.3	38%	61–72	✗
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure	+12.5	137.5	88%	55–81	✓
Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt	+2.3	140.2	62%	67–72	✓
Utah State @ Boise State	+5.9	136.0	77%	57–68	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-5.7	144.2	25%	92–84	✓
Grambling @ Southern	+10.1	141.5	81%	61–57	✗
Eastern Washington @ Idaho	-4.9	157.8	29%	80–83	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.