Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +5 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | SUU -1.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -1.0 (-6.0) | 148.3 (-1.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -1.3 (-6.3) | 150.5 (-3.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -0.6 (-5.6) | 152.4 (-5.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -0.8 (-5.8) | 152.6 (-5.6) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | MTST 89 – 88 SUU |
| Dec 1, 2022 | MTST 86 – 83 SUU |
| Mar 2, 2022 | MTST 69 – 53 SUU |
| Mar 13, 2021 | MTST 80 – 77 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 16-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-8 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#178) | 1.0 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#163) | 0.69 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#173) | 0.93 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#141) | 0.539 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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