Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +16 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -3.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -1.9 (+14.1) | 146.6 (-24.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -2.3 (+13.7) | 150.0 (-28.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -2.5 (+13.5) | 150.8 (-28.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -3.4 (+12.6) | 150.6 (-28.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | MTST 89 – 88 SUU |
| Dec 1, 2022 | MTST 86 – 83 SUU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | MTST 76 – 71 SUU |
| Mar 13, 2021 | MTST 80 – 77 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 9-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#145) | -0.1 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#122) | 0.13 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#119) | 0.09 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#81) | 0.526 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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