Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SUU -225 MTST +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | SUU -6.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -6.1 (-9.1) | 147.8 (+9.2) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -6.0 (-9.0) | 149.1 (+7.9) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -5.5 (-8.5) | 148.9 (+8.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -5.8 (-8.8) | 149.8 (+7.2) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | MTST 89 – 88 SUU |
| Dec 1, 2022 | MTST 86 – 83 SUU |
| Mar 2, 2022 | MTST 69 – 53 SUU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | MTST 76 – 71 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-4 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 12-2 | 8-6 |
| Home | 14-0 | 5-3 |
| Away | 5-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#130) | -4.1 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#93) | -0.80 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#118) | -0.94 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#55) | 0.465 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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