Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -154 SUU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +1 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -2.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+35.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -2.1 (-1.1) | 138.2 (+38.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -2.0 (-1.0) | 137.1 (+39.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -2.0 (-1.0) | 140.3 (+36.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -1.9 (-0.9) | 137.6 (+39.4) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2022 | MTST 86 – 83 SUU |
| Mar 2, 2022 | MTST 69 – 53 SUU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | MTST 76 – 71 SUU |
| Mar 13, 2021 | MTST 80 – 77 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 10-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#231) | -0.8 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#274) | -0.95 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#251) | -0.87 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#295) | 0.450 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 27.8 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 17.2% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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