Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SUU -120 MTST +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +3 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | SUU -9.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -4.8 (-7.8) | 146.7 (+22.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -5.7 (-8.7) | 151.0 (+18.0) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -6.6 (-9.6) | 151.2 (+17.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -5.3 (-8.3) | 147.8 (+21.2) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | MTST 89 – 88 SUU |
| Mar 2, 2022 | MTST 69 – 53 SUU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | MTST 76 – 71 SUU |
| Mar 13, 2021 | MTST 80 – 77 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#153) | -1.7 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#165) | 0.30 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#177) | 0.88 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#131) | 0.491 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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