Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +19 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -12.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (-18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -10.5 (+8.5) | 132.7 (-15.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -11.2 (+7.8) | 136.3 (-19.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -11.5 (+7.5) | 136.3 (-19.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -10.5 (+8.5) | 133.9 (-16.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIZ 88 – 64 MSST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MIZ 84 – 79 MSST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MIZ 85 – 73 MSST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MIZ 88 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 11, 2024 | MSST 75 – 51 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#43) | 0.5 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#74) | 0.56 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#73) | 0.75 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#88) | 0.512 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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