Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +8 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -1.8 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -1.2 (-6.8) | 129.2 (-7.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -1.2 (-6.8) | 129.1 (-7.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -0.7 (-7.3) | 129.4 (-7.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -1.7 (-6.3) | 129.1 (-7.1) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | USF 80 – 74 TLSA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USF 93 – 78 TLSA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USF 63 – 56 TLSA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TLSA 76 – 70 USF |
| Feb 15, 2024 | USF 69 – 50 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 4-14 |
| Home | 6-10 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#237) | 0.6 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#244) | -0.63 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#237) | -0.37 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#267) | 0.441 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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