Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +9 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | BGSU -3.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -3.2 (-12.2) | 159.4 (+13.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -2.6 (-11.6) | 165.6 (+7.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -3.0 (-12.0) | 164.7 (+8.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -3.3 (-12.3) | 163.4 (+9.6) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | BGSU 77 – 52 BALL |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BGSU 61 – 52 BALL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | BALL 91 – 69 BGSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BGSU 80 – 70 BALL |
| Jan 31, 2024 | BGSU 81 – 72 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#257) | -6.0 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#246) | -0.84 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#250) | -1.05 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#247) | 0.442 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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