Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +5 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -17.7 (-22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.0 (-18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -14.9 (-19.9) | 124.9 (-19.9) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -13.9 (-18.9) | 130.3 (-25.3) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -14.2 (-19.2) | 129.3 (-24.3) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -13.5 (-18.5) | 130.9 (-25.9) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 68 HC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 58 HC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 HC |
| Jan 8, 2025 | HC 70 – 59 NAVY |
| Feb 25, 2024 | NAVY 76 – 66 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 11-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.8 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#150) | -14.0 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#156) | -2.22 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#152) | -2.88 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#142) | 0.392 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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