Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -4.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -3.0 (+0.0) | 141.0 (+16.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -2.6 (-0.4) | 144.2 (+12.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -3.3 (+0.3) | 145.3 (+11.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -4.5 (+1.5) | 142.2 (+14.8) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TOW 81 – 56 COFC |
| Jan 16, 2026 | TOW 61 – 52 COFC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | COFC 77 – 69 TOW |
| Mar 11, 2024 | COFC 61 – 56 TOW |
| Feb 24, 2024 | COFC 72 – 56 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-8 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 62.4 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#167) | 6.9 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#162) | 1.27 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#177) | 1.62 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#172) | 0.558 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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