Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -10.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -6.2 (-4.2) | 148.0 (-14.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -8.3 (-6.3) | 149.4 (-15.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -8.8 (-6.8) | 148.8 (-14.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -8.3 (-6.3) | 150.2 (-16.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HOW 84 – 59 MORG |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MORG 78 – 77 HOW |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MORG 91 – 90 HOW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HOW 87 – 81 MORG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOW 100 – 95 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-13 | 13-15 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 7-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 8-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#215) | -12.6 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#256) | -2.20 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#247) | -2.71 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#257) | 0.404 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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