Betting Lines
| O/U | 124.0 Over |
| Money | FAIR -120 SPU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +11 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -1.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -0.8 (-10.2) | 130.4 (-1.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -1.1 (-12.1) | 132.3 (-3.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -0.2 (-11.2) | 133.2 (-4.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -0.9 (-11.9) | 132.0 (-3.0) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 6-9 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 62.9 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#203) | -0.2 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#240) | -0.13 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#240) | -0.09 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#234) | 0.520 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.