Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | INST +105 SIU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +4 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -1.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.5 (-3.5) | 131.7 (+16.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -0.1 (-4.1) | 130.3 (+17.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -0.4 (-3.6) | 131.2 (+16.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -0.7 (-3.3) | 132.0 (+16.0) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | SIU 66 – 55 INST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SIU 80 – 65 INST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SIU 86 – 85 INST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | INST 95 – 77 SIU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SIU 74 – 69 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 61.6 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#213) | 2.3 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#247) | -0.25 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#242) | -0.08 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#242) | 0.471 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 16.9% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.