Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YALE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -5.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -3.5 (+5.5) | 142.3 (+10.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -4.8 (+4.2) | 144.0 (+9.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -4.6 (+4.4) | 143.9 (+9.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -4.2 (+4.8) | 144.9 (+8.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PENN 88 – 84 YALE |
| Feb 21, 2026 | YALE 74 – 70 PENN |
| Jan 24, 2026 | YALE 77 – 60 PENN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | YALE 72 – 71 PENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | YALE 90 – 61 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YALE | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#142) | -1.2 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#137) | -0.06 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#135) | -0.00 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#80) | 0.507 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YALE | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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