Betting Lines
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | BUCK -120 LAF +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +3 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -0.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+35.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -1.1 (+4.1) | 144.9 (+36.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -0.3 (+2.7) | 143.9 (+37.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -0.0 (+3.0) | 145.3 (+35.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -0.5 (+3.5) | 146.3 (+34.7) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | LAF 81 – 79 BUCK |
| Jan 15, 2026 | BUCK 76 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BUCK 75 – 69 LAF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BUCK 65 – 62 LAF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | BUCK 60 – 50 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 6-9 |
| Away | 2-15 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#334) | -9.3 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#337) | -1.63 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#339) | -2.04 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#346) | 0.439 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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