Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +18 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -14.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -11.0 (+7.0) | 135.3 (-17.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -11.6 (+6.4) | 140.1 (-22.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -11.5 (+6.5) | 137.7 (-19.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -11.0 (+7.0) | 136.0 (-18.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | TXST 65 – 56 LR |
| Nov 7, 2023 | LR 71 – 66 TXST |
| Jan 21, 2022 | TXST 69 – 59 LR |
| Feb 6, 2021 | TXST 77 – 67 LR |
| Feb 5, 2021 | TXST 57 – 47 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-8 | 9-19 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 3-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#147) | -10.9 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#102) | -1.08 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#112) | -1.46 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#99) | 0.445 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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