Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | TXST -260 LR +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +9 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -10.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -6.4 (+2.6) | 129.2 (-8.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -6.7 (+2.3) | 132.8 (-11.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -7.7 (+1.3) | 130.6 (-9.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -7.9 (+1.1) | 129.5 (-8.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 7, 2023 | LR 71 – 66 TXST |
| Feb 19, 2022 | TXST 68 – 50 LR |
| Jan 21, 2022 | TXST 69 – 59 LR |
| Feb 6, 2021 | TXST 77 – 67 LR |
| Feb 5, 2021 | TXST 57 – 47 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 7-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#285) | -11.3 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#217) | -0.58 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#260) | -1.28 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#219) | 0.453 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 46.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 26.6% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 60.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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