Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +10 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -7.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -7.2 (-2.8) | 136.3 (-8.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -7.7 (-2.3) | 141.9 (-13.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -7.7 (-2.3) | 143.5 (-15.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -7.1 (-2.9) | 139.9 (-11.9) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | TXST 65 – 56 LR |
| Nov 7, 2023 | LR 71 – 66 TXST |
| Feb 19, 2022 | TXST 68 – 50 LR |
| Feb 6, 2021 | TXST 77 – 67 LR |
| Feb 5, 2021 | TXST 57 – 47 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-19 | 21-8 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 12-3 |
| Home | 6-7 | 12-1 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#316) | 1.6 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#255) | 1.05 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#259) | 1.02 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#255) | 0.542 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.5% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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