Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +4 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -11.9 (-15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -10.1 (-14.1) | 141.5 (-23.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -9.6 (-13.6) | 141.4 (-23.4) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -9.4 (-13.4) | 141.3 (-23.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -9.2 (-13.2) | 142.1 (-24.1) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SOU 87 – 73 GRAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SOU 71 – 53 GRAM |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GRAM 65 – 62 SOU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SOU 71 – 64 GRAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SOU 67 – 60 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-2 | 7-4 |
| Away | 8-11 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#164) | -9.1 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#191) | -1.53 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#207) | -1.84 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#178) | 0.437 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.9% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.1% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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